Sunday, October 15, 2006

Tilting At Windmills

Notice how many bears are shaking their fist at this market? Notice how many bulls are expecting a selloff? (They think a haircut would be healthy, setting the stage for a strong 4th quarter rally: the proverbial pause that refreshes.)

Among the bears, a lot of smart folks think this move is nothing more than a "head fake", or "sucker's bet", fueled by a "short squeeze".

If you peruse the following charts you'll notice they all have something in common: a weak opening followed by a strong finish. With the exception of last Wednesday (when the media went nuts over a plane flying into a NY highrise), this market has absorbed the initial wave of selling and then continued its march higher.






If this is a headfake or short squeeze we'll get a hint of trouble to come once we see that pattern reversed: exhuberant buying at the open followed by distribution.

Maybe then we'll begin to see the bulls shaking their hoof at the market.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

These are very good points ........
on certain Perma-Bear blogs , not only do you see no objective introspection on why they've missed 1400 Dow points in 8 weeks , but if a Bull has the " gall " to espouse his point of view , he gets " punched and kicked " , until he's no longer comfortable in making future contributive points ... many times the Bulls are banned ..... I am amused how the Bears find every "cloud" to confirm their sentiment , and constantly overlook the positives ...... in spite of this , I enjoy reading the opinion on these Bearish blogs , and also the Bearish fawning and end-of-the-world commentary , since sentiment -- good or bad -- has always been a key to my taking the other side of "their" trade

2:17 PM  

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