Thursday, August 31, 2006

Fork in the Road, Reprised

On a quiet Friday afternoon about a week ago I tossed out a humble observation I referred to as a fork in the road.

The NY Times has picked up the same theme and expanded on it. But A Forecast for a Fork in the Road is much more important than my rather vague feelings, for that author thought to check in with the very smart folks over at ECRI.

For those of you that are bullish- and tired of hearing all these nattering naybobs- I would still encourage you to keep an eye on what the people at ECRI have to say. Not just because ECRI's crystal ball seems to be of higher quality (which I think it is), but because anyone loaded for bear still needs to keep an eye out for the market's elephants (which just happen to be ECRI's clients).

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with your comments about ECRI, but the NY Times article was excessively negative (surprise, surprise)

If you listened to Lakshman Achuthn (ECRI Director) on Bloomberg this morning he was not as negative as the NY Times article. He took a wait and see attitude, not willing to commit to a forecast.

11:05 AM  
Blogger FRx said...

good point- ECRI is non-committal in the middle of an article where the author has made up his mind.

If you read ECRI's public statements on a stand-alone basis, they have always been verrrrry careful in choosing their words. But for those of us that have followed Lakshman Achuthn over the years there is a definite sense of ECRI's direction here.

In my mind we're AT a fork in the road; in the NY Time's piece we've already taken a turn.

1:04 PM  

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